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The Strategic Risk Institute LLC

Earn Your Certificate in Strategic Risk Governance and Management

Module 6: Why We Fail to Anticipate Strategic Threats, and How to Avoid this Source of Failure

• Mitre/Jason Study of Anticipating Rare Events
• Hide in Plain Sight: The Strategic Challenge of Grey Swans
• Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies
• Thinking the Unthinkable
• Known unknowns: Unconventional “strategic shocks” in defense strategy development
• Critical Thoughts About Critical Thinking
* Capability Surprise

Additional Readings:

  • The Critical Importance of Anticipatory Intelligence in a Complex, Uncertain World
  • Lessons from 16 Years of Scenario Planning at the US Department of Defense
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