Third Party Scenarios from Public Sources
These are a great "off the shelf" resource for use in developing and testing strategies and evaluating their robustness in the face of uncertainty
- Future UK Energy Scenarios
- Shell's Most Recent Energy Scenarios (here and here)
- 2040 Technology Scenarios
- 2050 Technology Scenarios
- Impact of Intelligent Automation
- Survey of AI Futures
- Post COVID19 Scenarios
- Post COVID19 Scenarios (second set)
- Global Macro Scenarios Post COVID
- Future Security and Privacy Scenarios
- Future Scenarios for the European Union
- Global Europe 2050 Scenarios
- Global Trends 2040
- MOD Global Strategic Trends to 2045
- Joint Operating Environment 2035
- MOD Operating Environment 2035
- Future Security Environment 2045
- Strategic Landscape 2050
- Risks in a Post Primacy World
- World Order Transformation
- Strategic Choices in a Turbulent World
- Geopolitical Shocks and Risks
- Nightmare Years to Come
- Most Recent NIC Global Trends Scenarios
- Great Power Competition Scenarios (and appendices)
- National Security Futures for Strategic Thinking
- Future of Geopolitics Scenarios
- Five Unknowns About the Future Political Economy
- Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060
- Five Social Scenarios
- 2050 Environmental Scenarios
- Public Health Scenarios
- Cyber Threat Scenarios
- Global Catastrophic Risks
Past scenarios can be a great resource, and not because of their accuracy (or inaccuracy). Rather, their value lies in understanding the logic and evidence they used, and, with the benefit of hindsight, realizing the key trends and/or uncertainties they left out (and why the scenarios' authors might have missed them). Armed with these insights, you can do much better pre-mortems on your own scenarios and plans, to help identify what you might be missing today.